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New loans rebounded from the previous month

This doubtful compliment 於 2018年03月09日發表   人氣:231


 

M2 growth continues to pick up.

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Credit growth remained stable, with M2 growth or continued recovery. New loans in March should be higher than in February, as February's credit gain was more affected by the holiday. Beginning march however domestic bond issuance began to increase gradually, in January and February issue about $4.85 trillion, and March 28, according to data issued bonds in March of 3.75 trillion yuan. Although Banks usually give priority to credit, the increase in the allocation of bonds by banking financial institutions will affect credit availability. After the financial deleveraging, some off-balance-sheet financing needs are gradually participating in the queue of financing needs in the competition table. It is expected that the credit growth rate of march will be stable and the credit increment will be about 1.25 trillion yuan.

The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged and market liquidity is generally stable. The tone of monetary policy should remain moderate for the next month. Although sino-us trade creates some uncertainty in the future domestic economy, the degree of impact has not yet reached the level of monetary policy change. In addition, since the financial deleveraging has achieved some success, compared with the market in the last two years, the liquidity shock has decreased significantly. At present, the interest rate of Treasury bonds is still on the track of lower interest rate in the short term, but the 10-year Treasury bond should have greater resistance near 3.70%. The overall forecast is that the domestic benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged and the market liquidity will be moderate in the next month.

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Trade friction

Increase exchange rate fluctuations

In late march, the federal reserve to raise interest rates, the sino-us trade conflict and the comments on the British central bank and the European central bank raising interest rates, the dollar index was down, a sharp rise in the yuan against the dollar, parity and intraday record since the "8.11" revaluation. Looking forward to April, the sino-us trade conflict is still an important factor affecting the dollar index and RMB exchange rate. Expect the dollar index is still low in April, together with the original futures to boost the yuan to a certain extent, the yuan against the dollar remain volatile or rise slightly, but won't appear the situation of continued unilateral rise, the market should pay close attention to China's trade negotiations and the end of the European central bank, the bank of Japan's interest rate decision. Foreign exchange occupation or continue to increase slightly. Overall cross-border capital is expected to remain weak in March, with foreign exchange occupying or continuing to increase slightly.

In the first quarter, exports accelerated the rebound in investment and the economy grew 6.8 percent. Investment growth accelerated significantly in the first quarter, significantly higher than the annual growth rate of last year, with a slight increase in economic growth. The acceleration of investment growth is mainly driven by the rebound of real estate development and private investment, but the decline in infrastructure investment may not have the momentum of sustained acceleration in overall investment growth. Export trade growth accelerated in the first quarter, and the promotion of economic growth is expected to increase further. The current economic growth needs to be more patient, and has become an important driving force for sustaining high growth in the economy. Consumption growth slowed in the first quarter, significantly below last year's level. Is expected in the first quarter, the contribution rate of consumption, investment and export on economic growth are 55%, 35% and 55% respectively, the contribution rate of consumption fell slightly but remains the largest kinetic energy, export's contribution to the economic growth effect continues to grow.

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It is expected that the economic growth will be stable and stable in 2018. With consumption surpassing investment as the main driving force for economic growth, the quarterly fluctuation of China's economic growth rate has been significantly reduced. Although investment growth accelerated in the first quarter, it was difficult to change the weakening domestic demand. With real estate investment growth slowing and infrastructure investment hard to accelerate, overall investment growth is expected to slow. Despite a slight increase in consumption growth at the beginning of the year, the potential for steady growth remains the biggest driver of economic growth. The current export growth is better, and we maintain the overall improvement of the export situation. However, under the influence of global trade protectionism, especially the unilateral U.S. trade war, there is great uncertainty about the future export situation. Overall, China's overall economy is expected to run smoothly in 2018, the growth quality will be accelerated, and the upgrading of the industrial structure will be gradually promoted.

 


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